Why Am I So Interested In US Presidential Elections ?

Hi and Welcome! It was the year 2011 and I was just still a kid who had grown to mimic his father by paying close attention to world news. Deep in a remote hilly village of the Congo basin, a free TV channel known as Press TV covered world events like none other. I was often times glued to the TV watching as President Muammar Gadaffi of Libya was killed by his own people with the support of the US and the West. Back then, I didn't really understand what was going on; rather, I just followed and kept myself updated on how the civil unrest was going. It will take me several years to fit the puzzle together and get a clearer picture of why things unfolded the way they did.

                                                                             

                                         Image by MS Copilot AI

After the 2020 pandemic, I became interested in markets. This interest finally helped me understand why things happen the way they do. I know you will have your own reasons, just as I have mine. You see, I now believe that if you don't understand economics and politics and how the two are intertwined, I guess you will always have to tune in to news sources, have people think for you, and conclude why you see and hear what you hear all the time. 

While I watched Libya get decimated, I constantly heard that the US and NATO were present on the ground. Then I heard that the US was part of NATO. This made me wonder why then will they say the US and then NATO. Well, that means that the US was also present despite NATO being present. That's a lot of interest if you ask me. I'm not here to debate the authenticity of the reasons for Libya's invasion or civil unrest. I'm just going to say that, Libya at the time was a major player in the oil commodity trade and markets. 

I have traded oil several times especially when there is unrest in the oil-rich Middle East. The US is a big oil reserve country too and for those who are in the commodity trading business, you certainly see how the prices of oil behave when political events like the US election are in full swing. Take for example people like Donald J. Trump who advocate for drilling and subsequently increasing the supply of oil in the market. Just by holding this stance, investors know that such supply may outweigh demand and thus, cause a drop in oil prices. And because in markets, money sees the future and moves before events in the future happen. This is just one instance of why I closely watch the US presidential elections. That is, I am looking to go where the money goes.

Forget about the oil and the war in Libya. Let us talk about the US dollar. The United States of America is the greatest country on Earth and the greatest there has ever been. You may not know but countries trade with each other just like you go to the store to buy stuff. Such trade between countries is known as international trade. The majority of such trading is done with the US dollar as the accepted currency. Why? you may ask, this is first and foremost because other countries trust the US dollar to keep its value. If I give you a dollar for your apple, you are confident taking the dollar because you know that, the value of that dollar is going to stay like that for some time and also because you know that you can use that same dollar and buy something else from someone and that someone will take it. This is in contrast to some other currencies like that of  North Korea. People trust the dollar not because of just America's might but because America is the best there's out there. You may beg to differ but that is your opinion. All countries are corrupt and not trustworthy but I will say this " In a basket of all dirty laundry shirts, the United States of America is the cleanest shirt". The US is the world's miniature. Such dollar power has given the US tremendous power in the sense that, people and countries save some of their wealth in US government treasuries (how this works is a topic for another day). Thus, if the whole world wants to hold dollars, it means that the dollar is in high demand, and the value attributed to it increases. This causes the dollar to be stronger and of more value to the citizens of the United States. So, when a president whom markets and US citizens see as positive for their economy wins an election, the dollar appreciates. This is always good for me because I can position and reposition my trades in the markets and make more money. This is also why I follow the elections. 

The US has military bases in a vast number of countries in this world. The US defense budget surpasses that of other countries by some distance. They are the superpower and because other countries have believed and seen the might of this power, they trust it and ally themselves with the US. This has been so since the Second World War when countries shipped their gold reserves to the US for storage. They believed it would be safeguarded in the US. You have to read one of my past articles on this to understand further. But, this means that the US has significant leverage over these countries which today also have their wealth in US treasuries because they believe the US will always pay them back. The US has used this leverage very efficiently, especially when dishing out sanctions like they have done to a host of countries (you know them). I have to always follow the US elections because my goal is to understand how the world will unfold within the next four years. Following the elections allowed me to understand what policies presidential candidates hold and how these policies will help me trade efficiently. 

I did mention about international trade. Now read this; in 2021, the US and the world at large were grappling with historically high inflation. This warranted monetary policy adjustments. The US in an attempt to cool down runaway inflation, hiked interest rates on its treasuries and made them attractive to attract money and suck it out of the system. This led to capital flowing into US debt securities and as such, dollars became scarce in international markets. This meant a trickle-down effect because countries could no longer borrow dollars to purchase rare and essential goods for their citizens. Thus, there was also food inflation in most countries especially the poor ones in Africa. So you see, I follow these elections to know which candidate may win, and if they do win, I know just what to expect. 

The just-ended US 2024 elections had a candidate like Donald Trump, boasting about his last presidency not starting any wars. He was right, and he promised to end current wars and warned countries fighting to hurriedly make peace. I love peace but what this meant was that there were opportunities to make money. When there are wars, people save their wealth in gold and other safe-haven assets. But when it looks like peace and stability are coming, the demand for these gold and safe haven assets drops as well as their price. I made good money selling gold after it was pronounced that Donald Trump had won the elections. So you see, I just don't follow these elections because they are entertaining but I also follow to be in tune with the markets. 

There are several other reasons but I will leave it here because the article is already too long for an internet place where everyone wants to keep scrolling lol. That being said, thank you for staying and reading. 

Stay blessed.